Harsh winter weather sent numbers of new listings and home showings down by double-digit percentages in Massachusetts. Experts are waiting to see if that lull in activity will add extra fizz to the spring market. iStock photo illustration

The Massachusetts housing market this winter has been the slowest in years. That could either juice the spring market, or it could be an early sign of trouble.

The winter season is known for its low level of activity. When the weather gets colder, the sunlight is rarer, homebuyers and home sellers tend to step out of the market and hit pause on their housing plans. The arrival of the holiday season also tends to see homebuyers and sellers press pause.

“There definitely was a more significant drop this winter than we typically see,” Massachusetts Association of Realtors President Kristen Keegan said. “From the frigid temperatures to the amount of snow that we got, it really delayed people leaving their houses or putting their houses on the market. People don’t want to list their home and have 20 people trucking through it with snow boots and whatnot. So it definitely had a serious effect on our inventory. A lot of delays with people listing their properties as a result.”

Beyond people not wanting to have people in homes or brave the elements, the weather created physical barriers for buyers looking to see homes or sellers looking to show properties to prospective buyers.

“You couldn’t get to people’s front doors,” Needham-based Gibson Sotheby’s International Realty agent Annie Bauman said. “The houses were in some places, they were just inaccessible. The snow not only fell, but it stuck. We had icicles and ice dams. I think that, understandably, sellers for the most part were holding off until the temperatures shifted.”

Home Showings, Listings Dropped

Massachusetts saw 14.8 percent fewer home showings in January than in January 2025, according to the most recent Zillow home-showing data available. It was the third straight month of year-over-year declines.

And there was a 7.4 percent drop in new single-family listings in January, followed by a 14.7 percent drop in in February, according to Massachusetts Association of Realtors data.

For sellers who did put their property on the market, they were still able to see plenty of interest from the limited number of buyers who are active in the market. Massachusetts’ ongoing lack of inventory was heightened by the decline in new properties hitting the market.

“The properties that are coming on right now are getting out the control offers,” Keegan said. “I have one that we are negotiating, we have eight offers in hand. Another one of my agents that works for me is up against 32 offers on a local property. The sellers who are jumping to make a move now are definitely in a great position and having buyers fight for it.”

While it is still chilly outside, now that the snow is melted agents are beginning to see more traffic when showing properties.

“One of the properties that I listed, we had over 35 showings,” Keegan said. “A lot of people were canceling their open houses with the weather being inclement, so depending on the time frame, with 2 feet of snow, people aren’t leaving the house. But now that things are starting to defrost, they’re definitely out there in full force.”

Job Security and Geopolitical Uncertainty

But larger economic factors add another layer to explaining the lack of activity.

After trending downwards to conclude 2025, rates have experienced some volatility in 2026. Rates spiked at the end of February. The spike coincided with the beginning of the current war in Iran that has also impacted other financial sectors such as gas prices.

The heightened slowdown was unexpected, said Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather, due to the downward trend in mortgage rates before the Trump administration launched its war on the last day of February.

The slow labor market is keeping some people out of the buyer pool by keeping them out of work, she said.

“I think what’s troubling about this economy is that there has been, on net, no new jobs [added to the American economy] since September 2024,” she said. “So, if you lost your job all the way back in fall or winter 2024 and you’ve been looking for a job, and you still haven’t been able to find a job, obviously you’re not going to be trying to buy a home. You wouldn’t even be able to qualify for a mortgage if you don’t have employment.”

General uncertainty is making other Americans who have good jobs nervous about making a big financial commitment like buying a house.

“That could also be holding back the market: the lack of job opportunities and people being worried about what would happen if they lost their job. Would they not be able to find another job because of how stagnated the labor market is?” she said.

An Ipsos survey of 1,005 U.S. residents on March 5 and March 6, commissioned by Redfin and released by the company earlier this month, suggests nearly 1 in 5 Americans are delaying a major purchase, like a home or car, due to the Iran war. But 56 percent of respondents said the war is having no impact on their plans.

Gas Price Increases a Concern

While mortgage rates are among the lowest they’ve been since 2023, the jump in recent days has tangible effects on mortgages that homeowners would be paying.

Last week’s average mortgage rate for a 30-year, fixed rate loan jumped to 6.22 percent according to mortgage-buyer Freddie Mac. The week before the war started, that rate was 5.98 percent.

The increase translates to a roughly $100 jump in a buyer’s monthly bills on a $600,000 home with a 20 percent down payment.

“That’s not nothing. That’s like your restaurant budget for the month potentially gone away” if you’re a middle-class buyer, Fairweather said.

Mortgage rates are far from the only financial factor being impacted by geopolitical instability. As the price of oil floats up past $110 a barrel, gas prices around Massachusetts are already starting to increase: by 24 cents alone in a recent week, according to AAA.

“That eats into people’s budgets. The higher gas prices are going to start showing up in higher consumer goods prices. It’s really going to start seeping in to higher inflation overall,” Fairweather said. “People [will] just have less money to spend, and they’re going to have to pay more in terms of their housing budget monthly.”

What Happens Next?

Even though the medical, biotech and higher education sectors have faced legal assaults and funding cuts from the Trump administration, the Massachusetts economy hasn’t ground to a halt.

“Boston and Greater Boston is a very diverse job pool,” Gibson Sotheby’s Bauman said. “Despite the housing shortage, it’s still a super desirable place to live.”

But the local economy is showing weakness.

Sam Lattof

Unemployment in Massachusetts hit 4.8 percent in December, while the Boston-area rate hit 4.5 percent, according the most recent data from the state Executive Office of Labor and Workforce Development. Neither are particularly high by historical standards, but both are higher – and are growing faster – than the national unemployment rate.

With the spring market getting ready to kick off, observers are watching to see whether the winter’s missing buyers and sellers will now both jump in. That could add both extra inventory and extra demand to what, before the Trump administration attacked Iran, was anticipated to be an extra-busy sales season.

Buyers who paused their home search in the winter will be replaced and potentially beaten by a whole new set of buyers who enter the market for the first time and will be looking to move quickly, predicted Bauman. Buyer demand in the spring market will be elevated, predicted MAR’s Keegan, who’s also the broker-owner of Silver Key Homes Realty in Dracut.

“Despite a recent uptick, mortgage rates remain below levels seen a year ago,” Zillow Senior Economist Orphe Divounguy said. “Improved housing affordability, combined with increased inventory, should help support market activity as we head into the spring season.”