New England Economic Partnership economists this morning predicted slow growth – including employment growth below the national average – throughout the region until at least 2017.

According to the regional forecast, prepared by New England Forecast Manager Ross Gittell, total employment growth in the region will average 1.3 percent per year with overall growth of 2.8 percent per year out to 2017. At that rate, NEEP economists do not expect the region to return to its pre-recession employment levels until 2014, and the unemployment rate, though lower than the national average, is not expected to fall below 6 percent until 2016.

However, NEEP economists presenting their forecast at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston highlighted the Hub as a bright spot in the region’s economic network. Boston’s share of regional gross domestic product has increased to 40.4 percent from 39 percent between 2001 and 2012, and the city’s highly educated work force has contributed to significantly higher productivity than in the rest of New England.

Productivity growth in Boston has also been faster in recent years. Relative to the rest of New England, Boston’s productivity was 9.7 percent higher in 2001 and 13.6 percent higher by 2012.

NEEP economists attributed Boston’s rate of productivity growth to faster-than-average growth in educational attainment in the area. In a study of 118 metropolitan areas in 1970 and 2000, Boston’s rank in terms of percentage of the adult population with a four-year college degree rose from 17th in 1970, at 14.6 percent, to 4th in 2000, at 38.1 percent.