Though economic indicators at home had ticked up at a modest pace since its last meeting in July, the Federal Open Markets Committee voted, yet again, to leave the federal funds rate unchanged from its near-zero levels.
It might be safe to say the Fed’s latest inaction surprised exactly nobody. This recent vote marked the 55th consecutive time the central bank has left its benchmark interest rate between zero and 25 basis points. While the committee acknowledged domestic improvements, it cited global financial concerns as its reason for leaving interest rates as is.
And in an historic first, one policymaker actually indicated that negative interest rates through the end of 2016 might be necessary to achieve the 2 percent inflation the committee wants to see before raising interest rates for the first time since June of 2006.
Tim Swanson, head of private banking at Citizens Bank, said his division has been preparing for a rate increase for some time now.
“We’ve been reducing our fixed income exposure across the board, we’ve been increasing cash exposure, we’ve been maintaining any bond durations at or below the three year range, and if we hold mutual funds or ETFs, we’re making sure those durations are shorter as well,” he said.
But for now, it’s anyone’s guess as to when the Fed will act on rates.
Only Jeffrey M. Lacker, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, voted against the decision Thursday, preferring instead to raise rates by 25 basis points.
“Progress has been slow and uneven, but the economy has worked its way back from the dislocations of the Great Recession. Unemployment is close to pre-recession levels, real GDP growth has been slow but steady, and inflation is tracking our objective,” he said in remarks delivered earlier this month. “I am not arguing that the economy is perfect, but nor is it on the ropes, requiring zero interest rates to get it back into the ring. It’s time to align our monetary policy with the significant progress we have made.”
Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen left the door open for a rate increase later this year, according to remarks at a press conference yesterday.
“I think now everyone’s looking at what’s going to happen next month,” Swanson said. “Our clients are preparing for it, Wall Street is preparing for it. It’s just a matter of when.”