Falling mortgage rates and pent-up winter demand are expected to juice the spring housing market, but mortgage rates have started rising under the influence of economic fears. iStock illustration
After a slow winter plagued by poor weather and a related slowdown in sales, real estate experts are expecting a busy spring market in 2026 – if mortgage rates cooperate.
According to The Warren Group, the publisher of Banker & Tradesman, single-family home sales across Massachusetts dropped by 10.6 percent with only 4,274 transactions so far in 2026. Along with poor weather, volatile interest rates and economic instability have kept buyers on the sidelines.
While affordability remains an issue, the price of homes is softening, if ever so slightly. The median sales price for a single-family home in Massachusetts remained virtually flat last month, dropping from $575,000 to $570,000 year-on-year. The year-to-date median price increased from $580,000 in February 2025 to $595,000.
But as March wound down, mortgage rates kept rising, raising questions about how many buyers will be on the market to provide a vital ingredient that’s been missing for many years.
New Listings Jump in March
According to the most recent MLS data aggregated by listings portal Realtor.com, March saw 7,046 new single-family, townhome and condominium listings hit the market in statewide, an 11.56 percent increase year-over-year. Active listings are showing growth, too, with an increase of 11.92 percent over the same time period (7,644 active listings).
March’s active listings count is the highest reported by Realtor.com since the end of the pandemic, but nearly 46 percent below where the state was in March 2019.
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While buyers could see some improved affordability compared to 2025, continued low inventory keeps competition high and reinforces the perception that homeownership is out of reach for many, Chase Bank Senior Home Lending Advisor Tedi Tijan said.
“For instance, upfront costs continue to be cited as one of the biggest barriers to homeownership, as well as a lack of education about the process,” Tijan said. “Homebuying will likely remain purchase-driven until rates drop even further than they have episodically since the beginning of the year.”
Still, with the spring market finally here along with better weather, Massachusetts Association of Realtors 2026 President Kristen Keegan has optimism that some additional inventory will come onto the market that would otherwise have been listed over the winter.
The state saw 7.4 percent fewer new single-family listings come to market in January, year-on-year, followed by a 14.7 percent drop in in February, Massachusetts Association of Realtors data shows, likely due to successive snow storms and frigid weather, brokers and agents told Banker & Tradesman last month.
On the buyer side, data from Zillow’s ShowingTime software showed 14.8 percent fewer home showings in January 2026 than in January 2025, the third straight month of year-over-year declines.
“I think it’s going to be a very busy spring market,” said Keegan, who’s also the broker-owner of Silver Key Homes Realty in Dracut. “We’re getting a lot of calls from buyers that had put their search on hold the past few months, and now they’re gearing up and refreshing their preapprovals and getting ready so that they’re able to act quickly as properties start coming available.”
Mortgage Rate Wild Card
The Iran war and oil and gas price shocks it spawned have spent the last month pushing up mortgage rates from the just-below-6 percent level many observers had hoped would unlock new inventory, and give more buyers the confidence to jump in the market. The average 30-year mortgage rate rose to 6.46 percent last week according to Freddie Mac.
Where those interest rates go will determine where the spring housing market goes, said Chase’s Tijan.
“While rates are very volatile right now, we expect purchase volume will fluctuate accordingly, based on the extent of rate drops,” he said.
Even with economic uncertainty, Gibson Sotheby’s agent Annie Bauman said the state’s ongoing housing shortage means strong demand will still be there.
“Massachusetts just has a draw,” she said. “We still don’t have enough buildings. It’s a problem, but I think people will still compete. I’m anticipating a very strong season.”
In Greater Boston, the numbers of buyers and sellers on the market in February were essentially equal, according to an analysis by Redfin economists using the most recent data available.
That’s a tighter spread than at the start of the 2025 spring market in the Boston area, Redfin reported last year, when there were 6.9 percent more buyers in the market than sellers.
Still, leading into the spring market, inventory has been quickly eaten up once it enters the market, experts say – especially when a property requires no renovations and is priced accurately.
“They [buyers] can’t get the house that they want because everybody wants it,” Medford-based RE/MAX Andrew Realty Services broker-owner John Veneziano said. “It’s almost like these buyers got lazy.”
Buyers in the current market are largely not looking for properties that require work to be done on the house. This can further elevate the level of competition for homes.
“There’s so much competition for not doing any work,” Veneziano said. “That’s why these houses that are all done over are going so quickly.”
New Ways to Make Offers Stand Out
Looking to buy in a competitive market is difficult. A buyer can be facing off with over 20 others for the same attractive property, Realtors interviewed for this story said.
But besides the actual price that a buyer can offer, it can be difficult for buyers to make their offer stand out from others. That is especially the case now that buyers can no longer waive home inspections in Massachusetts as a means of negotiating a potential home sale.
That means real estate agents are now forced to get creative in what they offer to make their buyer stand out from the rest.
“We’re seeing a lot of agents get creative and offer to do things like paying the seller’s tax stamps at closing, which saves them a little bit of money there, and offering appraisal gaps in case the property doesn’t appraise as high as they are going,” Keegan said. “Some of those terms like that, the sellers are loving it.”
Some buyers are even waiving their financing contingency or potentially not having their offer contingent on selling their old house, Veneziano said.
“You’ve got to guarantee that you’re not going to get fired, or you’re going to get the loan,” he said. “So, you don’t have to worry about an appraiser. If you come up over the asking price, you really don’t care, because it’s not an investment.”
Experts say Massachusetts’ various housing markets will be tied to the direction mortgage rates take this spring, as the influence of the Iran war echoes through the American economy – or fades. iStock illustration
Buyers Look for Opportunity
While competition is high, there are opportunities for buyers who are willing to put in sweat equity, or pay for a renovation down the line.
“You can negotiate on those properties and maybe live with an older bathroom,” Bauman, the Gibson Sotheby’s agent, said. “You can actually get some really decent deals because those homes are sitting. Understandably, the cost of labor and renovations are sky high, but you can maybe get into those properties that are lingering for a more favorable price.”
Additionally, buyers might find more advantageous opportunities looking for homes that are either below their peak price range or by waiting for listings to accumulate time on market.
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Redfin data shows nearly 4 in 10 homes on the Boston-area market in February had been sitting on the market for at least 60 days, compared to the 28.5 percent share the last time the region had a frenetic housing market, in February 2022.
“If I can afford a $900,000 house, I may not want to fish with all the other bodies that are in the $900,000 pool because some of those people might be able to afford $1 million. I probably want to save $50,000 to $100,000 under what I can afford,” Veneziano said.
And it will be crucial for buyers to be creative with their lending options, experts say.
“They need to be on a first-name basis with their lender, really understand their buying power options, like a seven-year ARM, not doing a 30-year fixed” rate loan, Bauman said. “I’m definitely seeing more of those, because it just gets you a little bit more wiggle room with purchase price and that could mean the difference.”
Tijan also noted that customers are increasingly taking advantage of adjustable-rate mortgages.
“We’re seeing customers respond to promotions like some of Chase’s rate sales, where we discount our rates for a limited time,” he said. “Consumers are looking to address the affordability concerns in any way that they can.”
