There’s a lot of excitement around the possibility of Amazon delivering up to 50,000 jobs over 10 to 15 years to the local economy directly, and perhaps as many more indirectly, if the Internet behemoth builds its second headquarters here. But given the historically low real estate inventory and paucity of new construction across the state, finding housing for that many people would be a struggle.

Of the 238 U.S., Canadian and Mexican communities that made a bid for Amazon’s HQ2, 26 were from Massachusetts – and it’s easy to see why. Amazon estimates its investments in Seattle between 2010 and 2016 pumped $38 billion to the city’s economy.

Amazon’s eight-page RFP was specific about the kind of commercial space it was looking for, but it hardly addressed housing at all. Real estate agents and homebuyers across the state have been grumbling about the lack of inventory – a problem that’s getting worse every month. According to the Massachusetts Association of Realtors (MAR), there were 14,519 single-family homes on the market in September, down 24.6 percent from September 2017. Inventory has been on the decline for more than five years. Couple that short supply with even more demand and home prices are sure to soar more than they already have.

Building Our Way Out

Being home to Amazon would be quite a boon for the Bay State, but it would also present some challenges, said MAR President Paul Yorkis, who owns Patriot Real Estate in Medway.

“If Amazon selects Massachusetts for its second headquarters, it’s going to find that there’s a low inventory of homes for sale,” Yorkis said. “People are going to find housing prices that will surprise them substantially.”

The state isn’t currently building enough new housing to accommodate today’s rate of incoming residents, let alone absorb a huge influx of Amazon employees.

The HOME Act currently before the state legislature is aimed at increasing housing production in the state to ease the tight inventory problem, but Yorkis said even if the legislature approved it and Gov. Charlie Baker were to sign it into law tomorrow, it would still take years before the effects were measurable. Amazon will announce the winning bidder in 2018.

“Before Amazon makes a decision, I hope the legislature supports changes in Chapter 40A [The HOME Act] to create more multifamily housing and cluster developments and accessory dwelling units,” Yorkis said. “I hope the legislature recognizes we are behind the eight-ball right now, without a major employer like Amazon moving here.”

It can take a year or more to get a subdivision permitted by a town and each single-family home takes up to four months to build.

Boston May Bear The Brunt

Nowhere in the state is the inventory tighter and less affordable than in Greater Boston. Boston Mayor Marty Walsh touted his ambitious housing plan “Boston 2030” in his bid for Amazon to move to the 53-acre, former Suffolk Downs race track in East Boston, but that plan did not take into account an Amazonian influx of new residents.

“We are excited to present the best of Boston to Amazon, with support from leaders in the educational, business and philanthropic communities and our neighbors in Revere, as the company considers locations for their second corporate headquarters in North America,” Walsh said in a statement. “With the recent completion of the first citywide plan in decades, this is a unique opportunity to build on the strengths and act on the goals set by residents in Imagine Boston 2030 to grow inclusively. Boston is a thriving city and we invite Amazon to grow with us.”

The Boston 2030 plan seeks to create 53,000 new housing units in the city by 2030 to accommodate existing growth. Approximately 6,500 of those units will be affordable housing, likely not relevant to Amazon employees, who the company said will earn more than $100,000 per year on average. The plan is off to a good start. As of the end of June 2017, 13,551 of those housing units had been created, enough to house 25,000 residents, according to the city.

Springfield is supporting a bid from Enfield, Connecticut touting communities along the stretch of Interstate 91 between Springfield to Hartford known as ’The Knowledge Corridor.” Western Massachusetts faces the same inventory shortage as the rest of the state, said Rick Sawicki, president of the Pioneer Valley Association of Realtors and Sawicki Real Estate, but he still wants Amazon to sink roots there.

“If you build it, they will come,” he said. “If you create a demand, I think that will create its own gravity. Why would a builder build a development of 200 homes right now? I think this would create some pressure. I think it would cause positive growth. I don’t think there would be any pushback. These are good jobs and we can always use good jobs in Massachusetts.”

South Shore Has Room For Growth

Weymouth’s 1,500-acre Union Point has most of what Amazon is looking for, said Peter Forman, president and CEO South Shore Chamber of Commerce. But no site has it all, and this one has room to build on the former naval air station.

“If Amazon chooses Union Point, there will be a lot of work to be done to accommodate them, but we’re up for the challenge,” he said.

The South Shore has a deep well of talented people who would gladly trade their commute to Boston and Cambridge for one to Weymouth, he said, and Amazon’s move could be the catalyst for building that shakes empty-nesters out of their larger suburban homes.

“I think there’s a lot of mismatched housing in the suburbs,” Forman said. “There are a lot of Baby Boomers looking for smaller homes and if there was more production of the kinds of smaller housing they’re looking for, that would free up a lot of inventory for younger buyers.”