Sorry, but veteran developer David Nunes’ bold bid to build a gambling palace off I-495 in Milford remains a long shot, regardless of whether his deal with the now-financially struggling Foxwoods provides a temporary boost or instead becomes a ball and chain.
That’s because Nunes’ biggest obstacle in his pursuit of a casino license is the suburban location he has picked, with small town zoning rules providing all the ammunition NIMBY types and anti-gambling groups need – and then some – to sink his $850 million gambling, shopping and entertainment hub.
You see, Nunes and Foxwoods will have to clear not one, but two town votes, the first a simple majority referendum, the second a two-thirds vote by Town Meeting.
Coincidentally or not, his competitors, a bevy of high-powered casino giants, are now lavishing their attentions on urban locales where development rules are more streamlined and one local tin-pot dictator or another calls the shots.
Casino Proposal Zoned Out?
Like all other would-be casino developers in Massachusetts, Nunes and Foxwoods will have to ink a deal with local officials and then get it passed in a town-wide referendum.
That is likely to be a steep challenge as it is, with the prospect of a casino a topic of heated debate in Milford among local residents and businesses. Neighboring communities are beyond debating, with officials in towns like Hopkinton and Holliston mobilizing to stop the proposed Nunes/Foxwoods gambling palace.
But even if the sprawling Crossroads Resort proposal clears a referendum, it faces even more daunting odds clearing a required Town Meeting vote.
You see, until the fall of 2011, when the Legislature gave a green light to plans for three big gambling halls and a slot parlor, casino gambling was illegal here.
And that means only a handful of towns have zoning rules that would allow for a gambling establishment, and Milford is not one of them, Louis Celozzi, Milford’s long-time town administrator, recently told me.
In order to get a green light for his project, Nunes will have to get a two-thirds vote of Town Meeting to change the zoning on his site, a sprawling wooded tract at the junction of 495 and Route 16.
Bolstered by the Foxwoods deal, Nunes is pushing to recast the casino competition in Massachusetts as a debate between the merits of a suburban and an urban location.
Playing to fears expressed by some top state leaders, including Gov. Deval Patrick, he argues putting a casino in East Boston would simply fuel more crime.
“If you look at the crime statistics … our location on 495 is an oasis unto itself,” Nunes says.
But to make that debate a realistic one, Nunes will have to find a way to bob and weave through the much more Byzantine rules governing suburban development.
And that’s far from a sure thing.
Calculating The Odds
Let’s think about that for a moment.
Lining up a two-thirds vote at a typically ornery New England-style Town Meeting can be difficult even for something innocuous, such as replacing an aging fire engine.
Getting two-thirds of Town Meeting voters to approve new zoning for a casino is quite another thing altogether.
And that’s even if it gets that far, with state law requiring the approval of two different town bodies, such as the local planning board or selectmen, to sign off on any proposed zoning amendment before it even goes before town meeting for a vote.
That means two public forums in which casino opponents get to jam the halls and berate their lion-hearted local officials.
The Krafts, who had pie-in-the-sky hopes of building a $1-billion, Las Vegas-style casino in sleepy Foxborough, found all this out the hard way.
They tried to sugarcoat a proposed slate of zoning changes that would have paved the way for Wynn to build one of his glitzy gambling halls on Route 1 from Gillette stadium, even avoiding the use of the word casino. Instead they dubbed it an entertainment complex.
No one was buying it and the Foxborough Planning Board shot down the proposal back in December 2011, with more than 500 residents turned out in opposition.
Now to be fair, Nunes and his new partner, Foxwoods, do have some advantages in pursuing plans for a casino in Milford compared to the mission impossible that Kraft and Wynn faced in Foxborough.
Milford officials have long been open about their interest in at least hearing out a casino proposal – their counterparts in Foxborough weren’t even interested in hearing Wynn out.
Town officials have even talked about preparing a proposal to change the zoning on Nunes site, creating an entertainment district there.
And Nunes may also have another small tactical advantage if such a zoning proposal were ever to make it to a town meeting in Milford.
Unlike Foxborough, where any town resident can show up to vote at Town Meeting, Milford elects a few hundred representatives to conduct its business.
That, at least, would prevent casino opponents from packing the hall.
Looking For An End Run
Still, for his part, Nunes does not appear inclined to try his chances at town meeting.
Instead, he seems intent on arguing that a change in zoning rules is not needed for him to build his proposed project.
In a recent interview, he argued that selectmen could negate a potential zoning vote, deeming it unnecessary.
That sounds like a pretty dubious approach. However, even if he could convince town officials to attempt such an end run around the zoning rules, it would not take a rocket scientist to figure out his casino proposal would wind up in court, not in construction.
But the most telling argument against the viability of trying to build a casino in suburban Boston may come not from gambling opponents, but from other would-be developers.
A quick look at where casinos are being proposed reveals that MGM, Penn National, Wynn, Richard Fields and the Mashpee Wampanoag tribe have all proposed urban, rather than suburban, locations.
Some are in big cities such as Boston and Springfield, others in smaller industrial cities like Everett and Taunton.
However, while zoning rules are important even in cities, mayors typically have the power to cut through the bureaucratic malarkey.
While there are all sorts of zoning rules in Boston, in the end, city zoning is whatever Mayor Thomas M. Menino says it to be.
But in towns like Milford, things just don’t work like that.
Email: sbvanvoorhis@hotmail.com
