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New research from the Tufts University Center for State Policy Analysis claims that a proposed “starter homes” ballot question would have “a real but limited impact” on Massachusetts’ housing problems.
Researchers estimated the ballot question, if successful, would likely allow between 350 to 1,200 more homes to be built per year.
With Massachusetts suffering from a lack of inventory, backers of the starter homes ballot question going before voters this fall want to legalize single-family homes on lots as small as 5,000 square feet wherever there is adequate space, direct road access and existing water and sewer service.
The Tufts researchers say the change would increase single-family home construction by approximately 15 percent and overall housing development by approximately 5 percent.
The researchers also expect that the starter home ballot question would ultimately create 3,500-12,000 net new homes over the first decade, with a central estimate of 7,500 in total, or 750 per year.
Additionally, if the ballot question passed, around 200,000 parcels statewide would have new construction options, including a small number of vacant lots and many large lots that could be readily subdivided. The study claims that the suburbs would see the large majority of the growth, particularly Boston-area suburbs that already have robust sewer infrastructure and lots that are large enough to split.
Still, the potential impacts are difficult to calculate.
“Impediments to construction are numerous and powerful,” the report said. “Some homeowners will never hear about the zoning adjustments; others will feel too connected to their current property to create new neighbors. Even eager builders and rebuilders may crash against high borrowing costs and a limited construction workforce. And towns that oppose looser building standards may find new ways to hamstring development.”
According to Redfin, pending sales of starter homes have increased by 1.4 percent to 4,686 in Massachusetts in April. Closed sales have increased by 9.3 percent to 3,992 during the same time period. The median starter home price is $455,416, which is a 4 percent increase year-over-year.
A March YouGov poll sponsored by activist group Abundant Housing MA found support for starter homes ballot question overwhelming opposition by a 58-21 percent margin.
