The numbers of homes for sale statewide in Massachusetts is up in a meaningful way. iStock photo

A trio of powerful forces kneecapped the early spring housing market in Massachusetts. Some hope this fall will bring statewide home sales back into the black.

During the first three months of 2026, numbers of single-family home sales in Massachusetts fell 4.2 percent, with 6,937 homes sold according to The Warren Group, publisher of Banker & Tradesman.

Observers at the time attributed the slow start largely to poor weather – which delayed some sellers from getting ready to list – while elevated interest rates and uncertainty driven by the early stages of the war against Iran kept many buyers and at least a few sellers on the sidelines.

That stutter in the market’s stride continued throughout the spring.

Through April 30, 10,012 single-family homes sold, according to The Warren Group, a 3.3 percent decline year-on-year. Through the first five months of 2026, only 14,039 single-family homes sold, a 2.2 percent decline from the same period last year.

“Everyone thought that with the new [Federal Reserve chair] coming in, the [typical mortgage] rate would go down, but we can’t get rid of this war,” Real REMAX Andrew Realty Services broker and owner John Veneziano said. “Costs are going up. The inventory is growing right now, and we hope to get buyers to jump on. Those buyers have to be motivated and have urgency. If they don’t have urgency, the inventory is going to sit, and then you’re going to come into a 2027 where you’re going to have a lot of inventory.”

2026 Sales Narrowing Gap With 2025

The state’s long-running shortage of suitable, affordable replacement homes continues to discourage existing homeowners from selling, driving down overall sales, observers said.

But with inventory increasing as the traditional fall selling season opens, some real estate professionals have hope that more sellers will feel confident in their ability to find new homes – and become more willing to list their current properties in the process.

There was a 9.4 percent year-over-year increase in new listings in July, according to the most recent data from the Massachusetts Association of Realtors.

“Despite those inventory struggles, there are more options available for sellers to choose from,” said Kristen Keegan, the 2026 president of the Massachusetts Association of Realtors. “With that increase, even though it’s a slight increase, it is giving the sellers a lot more hope that something will be out there for them once they go under contract with what they’re currently in.”

The market has also begun to narrow the year-over-year deficit in sold homes, key to sustaining Realtors’ businesses.

Through July 31, 22,045 single-family homes had been sold on the state’s three MLS services, according to MAR, a 0.9 percent decline against the first seven months of 2025. The Warren Group, whose data includes homes not sold via an MLS, has not yet released sales data for July 2026.

More Listings, More Sales?

As of publication, statewide August inventory data was not yet available, but MLS data aggregated by listings portal and brokerage Redfin showed a 15.2 percent year-over-year increase in combined active single-family and condominium listings in Greater Boston, for the four weeks ending Aug. 23.

Inventory typically peaks during the fall market as households with children focus on the return to school and major holidays approach.

But that doesn’t usually coincide with anything like a matching bump in sales.

“What happens in the fall is that inventory levels will peak, and when you have more homes on the market, there’s more for buyers to choose,” Greater Boston Association of Realtors 2026 President Joselin Malkhasian said. “There’s also a little bit less buyer competition in the fall months. If there are buyers that had to re-sign a lease, typically by September they’ve already re-signed a lease.”

Cape Market Marches to Different Beat

The fall market also varies across the state. On Cape Cod, fall activity is typically stronger than in the broader Massachusetts market.

“The summer doesn’t fall off as much as it might elsewhere,” Cape Cod and Islands Association of Realtors CEO Betsey Hanson said. “But it definitely has a little bit of a lull, and then the fall really picks back up. We’re anticipating, from everything we’re seeing, even based off of what August was, that it’s going to be a hot market for this fall.”

A shortage of suitable, affordable replacement homes continues to discourage existing homeowners from selling, driving down overall sales. iStock photo

With the increase in inventory in Massachusetts’ housing submarkets, buyers have a greater advantage than they might typically have throughout the year with more choices to choose from. And buyers today are looking for homes that are require no work and are ready to be moved into, according to Hanson.

Despite this, homes priced and marketed properly could still sell for more than their asking prices, said Keegan.

“Homes that are overpriced are sitting, and typically, what we see with homes that are overpriced is that they end up selling for less than they could have if they were just priced properly from the beginning,” Keegan said. “Buyers are very educated. They’re watching the market; they know what homes are worth. If they see something that’s even $10,000 overpriced, they’re thinking that maybe that seller has an unreasonable expectation of what they’re going to receive for offers. Those buyers aren’t even looking at those properties versus a property that’s priced right where it needs to be.”

Sam Lattof

Back to the Black?

So, will the Massachusetts erase its deficit of home sales, or even rise past its 2025 totals?

Most of the industry professionals interviewed for this story do not expect substantial growth in transaction volume.

“In years past, we had really low transaction [volumes] because there wasn’t enough inventory, and that’s the reason why we have low transaction numbers this year,” Malkhasian said. “I do think that unless we have a significant or even a change in interest rates – going down – I don’t necessarily think that we’re going to make up or recover the number of transactions that we missed out on.”

Keegan said she’s slightly more optimistic. With more inventory on the market, buyer interest will be high, she said, and the 2026 sales deficit could be erased.

“I think we’re going to make up for a lot of the transactions that we missed in the winter market. I do think that we’re going to be pretty comparable to where we were last year,” she said. “With the increase in inventory and the buyers coming back into the market, it’s going to be very competitive, and I think that we will continue to see a lot more pending sales.”