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As the calendar ticks down to 2026, Massachusetts real estate professionals say they have reasons to be excited and nervous about the 2026 for-sale housing market.
Year-to-date through Nov. 30, there have been 39,495 single-family home sales in the state, according to The Warren Group, the publisher of Banker & Tradesman, an increase of 2.6 percent year-over year. The year-to-date median sales price increased by 4 percent to $640,000.
Over the same period, Massachusetts has seen 17,786 condominiums trade hands at a median sale price of $540,000. Those are 2.97 percent and 0.82 percent increases, respectively.
Inventory Will Head Upward
Two industry leaders said they are excited about inventory trending upwards heading into 2026. For an inventory-strapped market, this is great news for buyers – a number of whom are likely sellers itching to get out of homes that no longer fit their needs.
“We are seeing higher inventory levels this fall,” Lamacchia Realty agent Joselin Malkhasian said. “We actually surpassed 2020 levels, so the highest inventory that we’ve seen in the past five years, which is very exciting, because obviously the more properties for sale, the more options buyers have to choose from.”
Malkhasia, the 2026 president of the Greater Boston Association of Realtors, added that more inventory puts more pressure on sellers to price their homes properly, as homes that are priced over their value can begin to sit on the market.
For the four-week period ending on Dec. 14, Greater Boston boasted the largest year-over-year increase in new listings of all types among metro-level MLS data aggregated by brokerage Redfin, which includes the 50 most populous U.S. metros.
“I’m happy to start seeing a slight increase in the inventory that’s coming on the market,” said 2026 Massachusetts Association of Realtors President Kristen Keegan, the broker-owner at Dracut-based Silver Key Homes. “We haven’t seen a huge influx, but a couple of a percent is a move in the correct direction. I think it’s going to be very beneficial to the buyers over the next year, if we start seeing that trend continue.”
Mortgage Rates Won’t Help
While mortgage rates are not directly correlated to the Federal Funds rate set by the Federal Reserve, industry professionals are excited about recent rate cuts. The Federal Funds was cut to 3.5 percent to 3.75 percent after the central bank’s latest meeting in December. A year prior, the rate was between 4 percent and 4.25 percent according to data compiled by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
But mortgage rates haven’t dropped nearly as far as the Federal Funds rate, thanks in part to relatively static rates on Treasury bonds since September. According to mortgage-buyer Freddie Mac, the average rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate loan sits at 6.21 percent. This time last year, that rate sat at 6.67 percent.
“Many of the predictions for 2026 show an increase in mortgage volume of 20 percent year-over-year. Cross Country Mortgage Senior Vice President Andrew Marquis said. “This coupled with the potential for more Fed rate cuts and more buyers and sellers entering the market has me excited for 2026. On the other hand, the other day I saw several major entities predicting stagnant mortgage rates holding at 6 percent throughout 2026, which has me a bit worried.”
The National Association of Realtors is predicting that existing-home sales could increase by 14 percent, which will be boosted by a continued downward trend in rates and slumping prices in other parts of the country.
“After three years of flat home sales, a solid double-digit percentage increase is expected in 2026,” NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said in a statement. “In 2026, we expect higher inventory, modest improvements in affordability, and more accommodating monetary policy from the Federal Reserve will help more Americans buy their next home.”
