Single-family inventory has jumped 29 percent for an area covering Greater Boston’s core suburbs plus the Worcester area. That is giving buyers an edge iStock photo
Residential real estate in Central Massachusetts has been in a seller’s market since 2013. That 12-year run appears to have finally come to an end.
Our research at ERA Key Realty Services shows that today’s market is more balanced than it has been for many years. It may not be a buyer’s market, but it’s now tilting in favor of buyers.
That may not be good news for sellers, but it’s long overdue. Homebuyers have not had much to cheer about for many years, as even rising interest rates failed to bring down housing prices.
In Massachusetts, buyers have been burdened with some of the highest housing prices in the country. The typical home in Massachusetts is valued at $634,548, according to the National Association of Realtors, which is 78 percent higher than the national average of $361,293.
That leaves many Massachusetts residents with few choices. They may be able to afford buying in one of the lower-priced Massachusetts communities; otherwise, their choice is renting, or moving to a less costly state.
Even without the added cost of living in Massachusetts, many potential buyers are finding it difficult to purchase a home. Nationally, 60 percent of Americans cannot afford a $300,000 home, according to the National Association of Home Builders. Based on the association’s data, fewer than 15 percent of American households can afford to buy in Massachusetts.
Inventory Is Catching Up
Still, would-be homeowners who want to live in Massachusetts should be encouraged by the results of our research. ERA Key Realty tracked the housing market in four counties – Middlesex, Norfolk, Suffolk and Worcester – comparing the first half of 2025 to the first half of 2024.
We found that market inventory has jumped 29 percent for single-family homes and 34 percent for condominiums. That’s a huge increase and the trend may continue. New listings are up by significantly less – 9 percent for single-family homes and 14 percent for condos.
While supply has surged, demand has slowed. Pending sales have stagnated, growing by just 2 percent to 5 percent, causing absorption rates (the share of listings going under agreement) to fall by about a quarter.
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The price of housing is heavily affected by supply and demand. Prices have escalated along with interest rates in recent years because of a lack of supply, so the increase in inventory is welcome news.
Inventory has been low in large part because of the Federal Reserve Board’s zero-interest rate policy, which was a response to the Great Recession of 2007. The Fed does not directly set mortgage rates, but when it lowers its benchmark federal funds rate, mortgage rates are usually affected. The Fed continued pushing rates lower during the pandemic, before increasing rates in recent years.
Price Adjustments Coming
Many homeowners were able to lock in ultra-low mortgage rates, but rising rates created a disincentive to relocate. When interest rates rose, many homeowners who might have sold hung on to their homes, so they wouldn’t have to obtain new, higher-rate mortgages.
Restrictive zoning laws also limited the amount of new housing coming onto the market.
At the same time that supply was tanking, demand was increasing, as Millennials and then members of Generation Z reached the age when they were seeking to purchase homes.
The net result has been ever-escalating prices. Average monthly mortgage payments on median-priced houses have surged from $1,445 in 2021 to $2,570 in 2024, according to The Wall Street Journal, which added that the change has priced more than 60 percent of first-time buyers out of the market.
While first-time buyers accounted for about a third of all homes purchased from 2015 to 2023, in 2024 the share declined to 24 percent, which is the lowest level since the NAR began tracking the data in 1981. The average age of first-time buyers has increased from 28 years old in 1991 to 38 years old in 2024.
Cheryl Eidinger-Taylor
While housing prices are still high, our research found that about a third of sellers of single-family homes and nearly half of condo sellers are making price adjustments – selling at less than their initial asking price.
The shift to a balanced market isn’t confined to Massachusetts. Redfin reported that in April there were almost a half-million more sellers than buyers in the U.S. housing market.
An Ever-Shifting Market
But the housing market is cyclical and ever-changing. Prices historically get only so high before they begin adjusting downward. Prices remain high today, but the bidding wars that jacked up prices in recent years are no longer taking place.
During our research interviews, real estate agents told us that supply is rising, because some sellers are experiencing life events that require them to move, such as a job relocation or having a baby.
Others are selling investment properties, because their costs are rising. Sellers are worried that home prices will fall. They want to sell before that happens.
Are we on the cusp of a buyer’s market? Perhaps. In real estate, as in life, the only certainty is that nothing stays the same for too long.
Cheryl Eidinger-Taylor is president and COO of ERA Key Realty in Northbridge.
