The number of high-end condominiums that went under contract in June increased year-over-year. That bodes well for the availability of listings this fall. iStock photo

This is our fifth year of market uniqueness despite calls and forecasts for normalcy and the high-end market led the way. More than 50 percent of listings for the year come on the market in a five-month window in the spring, so the last thing anyone in real estate wants is the spring market to have volatility and uncertainty.

While January came out of the gate strong, President Donald Trump’s tariffs quickly changed the financial markets and, subsequently, the premium, mid-luxury and luxury real estate markets. President Trump signed executive orders on tariffs on Feb. 1. At that point the Dow Jones Index dropped from 44,556 to an annual low of 37,645 just nine short weeks later.

Certainly, an 18.5 percent drop in marketable assets is significant. However, the volatility was gut-wrenching. April 1 is one of the biggest listing days of the year and, for many, signifies the start of the spring market. April 1 through April 8 saw a 4,000 point drop in the Dow Jones!

For a residential real estate buyer, there’s the old adage, “The three most important words in real estate are location, location, location.” For sellers, the most the most relevant words are death, divorce and desire. Death is inevitable and divorce is unfortunate, but desire can be easily extinguished by market uncertainty.

Why Mass. Sellers Hesitated

When I speak on the general economy, I look at five factors: the unemployment rate, the Dow Jones Index, consumer confidence, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate and the prime rate.

The five factors tell a quick, yet relevant story: are people working? Do they have liquid assets? Are they confident in spending their money? Is their lending partner lending affordably? Is short-term money affordable?

The most overlooked factor is consumer confidence. People may be working and they may have liquid assets. However, if they are not confident in the economy they will hoard rather than spend. The benchmark established in 1985 by the Conference Board was 100. Meaning, if consumer confidence is under 100 people tend to spend less, and if over 100 they will spend more.

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Looking at Massachusetts this spring and into summer, the commonwealth’s unemployment rate rose to from 4 percent in January to 4.8 percent in June. With the turbulence in the financial markets, it’s no surprise the employers held off filling positions. In the same time period, consumer confidence dropped from 104.1 points to 86.0 in April, then rose to 95.2 points in June.

The negative effect that tariffs had on the spring real estate market should come as no surprise. While all price points were affected, the mid-luxury and luxury markets were most severely impacted.

Going back to desire, if one does not have to sell (death, divorce) then there’s typically no harm in waiting the market out.

Where’s the Luxury Market Headed?

In Greater Boston, we at Advisors Living consider the high-end single family and condominium market to be $3 million and above.

Looking at properties that went under contract in this segment, the number of high-end condos in Greater Boston listed on MLS PIN dropped from 22 units in April 2024 to merely 12 in April of 2025. Units under contract were down from 16 in May of 2024 to only 11 units in May of 2025. Looking at the first seven months of this year, the number of high-end units dropped from 113 to 97.

Merit McIntyre

So, where is Greater Boston’s luxury market heading?

The good news is that in June of this year, the number of high-end units going under contract increased from 26 to 29. While that is only a small increase, I believe the recovery in mid-luxury to luxury home sales bracket will be slow, steady and healthy.

Residential real estate markets react more slowly than financial markets. However, with the upward trend over the past three months, combined with consumer confidence rising slowly to the 100 point benchmark, the luxury real estate market will follow if historical patterns hold true.

Looking ahead, we enter the fall market with 29 $3 million-plus condos already under agreement and scheduled to close by year-end. Historically about 62 percent of fall market luxury closings come from contracts written Aug. 20 to Dec. 31, so today’s 29 units implies 76 additional closings by Dec 31. That’s even after applying a standard 6 percent fall-through rate of high-end sales.

Based off the recent tariff-neutral momentum, the region stands to have a year-end net surplus of approximately a dozen more luxury sales than last year and a strong signal for the high-end.

In closing, please don’t mess with the peak fall market!

Merit McIntyre is president and CEO of Boston-based Advisors Living.